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Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Aquatic Invasive Species
Different components of global environmental change are typically studied and managed in-dependently, although there is a growing recognition that multiple drivers often interact in complex andnonadditive ways. We present a conceptual framework and empirical review of the interactive effects ofclimate change and invasive species in freshwater ecosystems. Climate change is expected to result in warmerwater temperatures, shorter duration of ice cover, altered streamflow patterns, increased salinization, andincreased demand for water storage and conveyance structures. These changes will alter the pathways bywhich non-native species enter aquatic systems by expanding fish-culture facilities and water gardens to newareas and by facilitating the spread of species during floods. Climate change will influence the likelihood ofnew species becoming established by eliminating cold temperatures or winter hypoxia that currently preventsurvival and by increasing the construction of reservoirs that serve as hotspots for invasive species. Climatechange will modify the ecological impacts of invasive species by enhancing their competitive and predatoryeffects on native species and by increasing the virulence of some diseases. As a result of climate change, newprevention and control strategies such as barrier construction or removal efforts may be needed to controlinvasive species that currently have only moderate effects or that are limited by seasonally unfavorable con-ditions. Although most researchers focus on how climate change will increase the number and severity ofinvasions, some invasive coldwater species may be unable to persist under the new climate conditions. Ourfindings highlight the complex interactions between climate change and invasive species that will influencehow aquatic ecosystems and their biota will respond to novel environmental conditions.
https://umass.app.box.com/s/52t0589ivvr6wu2e3fv4rd98tet4gljj
A Framework for Prioritizing Sleeper Weeds for Eradication
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https://umass.app.box.com/s/if0i9dgv28da1pzqsi3pgvmb6oeb3gq2
Plants in a warmer world
Climate is a major determinant for the phenology, physiology, distribution and interac-tions of plants. The world’s recent climate has shown a substantial increase in averagetemperature which is changing these processes in a perceptible way. The following reviewcompiles and discusses studies reporting recently observed changes in the behaviour,ranges and interactions of species which are thought to be associated with climate change.The multitude of recently published studies providing evidence for the ecological impactsof climate change on many different continents strongly suggests that the last 30 years ofwarmer temperatures have had a substantial influence on both seasonal patterns, and alti-tudinal and poleward shifts in vegetation. Common features of change, but also some dis-crepancies in the response of plants to climate change, are discussed, as well as implica-tions for biodiversity, higher level impacts on community structure and trophic interac-tions, and some ecosystem consequences.
https://umass.app.box.com/s/kytfsoilgi8bhd59x4adqqyxmqzvgmso
Will extreme climatic events facilitate biological invasions?
Extreme climatic events (ECEs) – such as unusual heat waves, hurricanes, floods, and droughts – can dramat-ically affect ecological and evolutionary processes, and these events are projected to become more frequentand more intense with ongoing climate change. However, the implications of ECEs for biological invasionsremain poorly understood. Using concepts and empirical evidence from invasion ecology, we identify mech-anisms by which ECEs may influence the invasion process, from initial introduction through establishmentand spread. We summarize how ECEs can enhance invasions by promoting the transport of propagules intonew regions, by decreasing the resistance of native communities to establishment, and also sometimes byputting existing non-native species at a competitive disadvantage. Finally, we outline priority research areasand management approaches for anticipating future risks of unwanted invasions following ECEs. Given pre-dicted increases in both ECE occurrence and rates of species introductions around the globe during the com-ing decades, there is an urgent need to understand how these two processes interact to affect ecosystem com-position and functioning.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/z0uq9gatb0g4qty/Diez%20et%20al%202012%20Frontiers.pdf?dl=0
Modeling dynamics of native and invasive species to guide prioritization of management actions
Action to achieve biodiversity conservation is usually expensive, and resources are limited relative to conservation goals. Prioritizing management investment therefore is essential if important goals are to be achieved. New software, the “Islands DSS,” has been developed to prioritize the mix of management actions that will optimally mitigate biodiversity loss. Here, we present novel temporally dynamic models of species population growth, interaction, and management efficacy that have been incorporated into the software. We have analyzed the sensitivity of these models to uncertainty in four parameters: maximum rate of population growth (rmax), coefficient of species interaction (αij), quantity of food resources required to maintain species equilibrium (Ji), and the coefficient of management efficacy (θi). We focused on the projected abundance of species by simulating interactions among one to four species, both invasive and native, on a hypothetical arid-tropical island that is 1000 ha in size and consists of five evenly distributed habitat types. Sensitivity analysis revealed significant variation in species abundance due to uncertainty in rmax (coefficient = 51.34; P < 0.001) and αij (Ni = −16.48; P = 0.43; Nj = −2.332; P = 2.00−16), a significant but potentially stabilizing effect of modeling multiple species simultaneously (coefficient = −65.80; P = 2.00−16), and mirroring by species response trajectories of threat mitigation trajectories. There are several benefits of using temporally dynamic models of species responses to threat mitigation in systematic conservation planning including increased accuracy in estimates of the cost of management; locally relevant understanding of lag-times between threat establishment and unacceptable impacts on valued species; understanding of threat abundance and required intensity of control for biodiversity features to persist; site- and species-specific understanding of time to eradication and threat recovery when management is interrupted; and an improved understanding of the opportunity cost, in terms of threat levels and responses of native species, for islands not selected for management. Our models and associated software are based on decades of ecological research, potentially useful in a wide range of situations, including islands, the mainland, and marine regions, and we suggest that they provide managers with novel and powerful tools to efficiently prioritize conservation actions via the new systematic conservation planning software, “Islands DSS.” http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ecs2.1822/full
Predicting aquatic invasion in Adirondack lakes: a spatial analysis of lake and landscape characteristics
Invasive species continue to pose major challenges for managing coupled human–environmental systems. Predictive tools are essential to maximize invasion monitoring and conservation efforts in regions reliant on abundant freshwater resources to sustain economic welfare, social equity, and ecological services. Past studies have revealed biotic and abiotic heterogeneity, along with human activity, can account for much of the spatial variability of aquatic invaders; however, improvements remain. This study was created to (1) examine the distribution of aquatic invasive species richness (AISR) across 126 lakes in the Adirondack Region of New York; (2) develop and compare global and local models between lake and landscape characteristics and AISR; and (3) use geographically weighted regression (GWR) to evaluate non-stationarity of local relationships, and assess its use for prioritizing lakes at risk to invasion. The evaluation index, AISR, was calculated by summing the following potential aquatic invaders for each lake: Asian Clam (Corbicula fluminea), Brittle Naiad (Najas minor), Curly-leaf Pondweed (Potamogeton crispus), Eurasian Watermilfoil (Myriophyllum spicatum), European Frog-bit (Hydrocharis morsus-ranae), Fanwort (Cabomba caroliniana), Spiny Waterflea (Bythotrephes longimanus), Variable-leaf Milfoil (Myriophyllum heterophyllum), Water Chestnut (Trapa natans), Yellow Floating Heart (Nymphoides peltata), and Zebra Mussel (Dreissena polymorpha). The Getis-Ord Gi* statistic displayed significant spatial hot and cold spots of AISR across Adirondack lakes. Spearman’s rank (ρ) correlation coefficient test (rs) revealed urban land cover composition, lake elevation, relative patch richness, and abundance of game fish were the strongest predictors of aquatic invasion. Five multiple regression global Poisson and GWR models were made, with GWR fitting AISR very well (R2 = 76–83%). Local pseudo-t-statistics of key explanatory variables were mapped and related to AISR, confirming the importance of GWR for understanding spatial relationships of invasion. The top 20 lakes at risk to future invasion were identified and ranked by summing the five GWR predictive estimates. The results inform that inexpensive and publicly accessible lake and landscape data, typically available from digital repositories within local environmental agencies, can be used to develop predictions of aquatic invasion with remarkable agreement. Ultimately, this transferable modeling approach can improve monitoring and management strategies for slowing the spread of invading species.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ecs2.1723/full
Outbreak of an undetected invasive species triggered by a climate anomaly
When an invasive species appears at a new location, we typically have no knowledge of the population dynamics leading up to that moment. Is the establishment of invasive propagules closely followed by the appearance of the population? Or alternatively, was there an established low-density population that was released from a constraint and crossed the detection threshold? The early stages of the invasion process are a critical gap in our knowledge, yet vitally important for the detection and management of invasions. Here, we present multiple lines of evidence supporting the lag scenario for an invasive species outbreak. The invasive predatory zooplankton, spiny water flea (Bythotrephes longimanus), was detected in Lake Mendota, Wisconsin (USA), in summer of 2009 and rapidly reached and sustained exceptionally high densities. To evaluate whether Bythotrephes’ outbreak immediately followed introduction or erupted from an established low-density population, we constructed a population model of Bythotrephes in Lake Mendota. In the model, Bythotrephes persisted indefinitely at low levels until favorable thermal conditions in 2009, the coolest July since at least 1895, allowed it to erupt to high densities and establish a large egg bank in the lake sediments. The egg bank stabilized the population in the high-density state despite a return to nonfavorable thermal conditions, which is further supported by demographic data suggesting a constant contribution from the egg bank during the year. The prolonged lag scenario is corroborated by the detection of two individual Bythotrephes in pre-2009 archived samples, and the detection of Bythotrephes spines in lake sediment core layers dating back to 1994 (±5 yr). Together, our results suggest that Bythotrephes persisted for at least a decade below the detection limit, until optimal thermal conditions triggered a population outbreak. This work highlights the potential for environmental conditions to trigger invasive species outbreaks from low-density populations.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ecs2.1628/full
Simulations indicate that scores of lionfish (Pterois volitans) colonized the Atlantic Ocean
The invasion of the western Atlantic Ocean by the Indo-Pacific red lionfish (Pterois volitans) has had devastating consequences for marine ecosystems. Estimating the number of colonizing lionfish can be useful in identifying the introduction pathway and can inform policy decisions aimed at preventing similar invasions. It is well-established that at least ten lionfish were initially introduced. However, that estimate has not faced probabilistic scrutiny and is based solely on the number of haplotypes in the maternally-inherited mitochondrial control region. To rigorously estimate the number of lionfish that were introduced, we used a forward-time, Wright-Fisher, population genetic model in concert with a demographic, life-history model to simulate the invasion across a range of source population sizes and colonizing population fecundities. Assuming a balanced sex ratio and no Allee effects, the simulations indicate that the Atlantic population was founded by 118 (54–514, 95% HPD) lionfish from the Indo-Pacific, the Caribbean by 84 (22–328, 95% HPD) lionfish from the Atlantic, and the Gulf of Mexico by at least 114 (no upper bound on 95% HPD) lionfish from the Caribbean. Increasing the size, and therefore diversity, of the Indo-Pacific source population and fecundity of the founding population caused the number of colonists to decrease, but with rapidly diminishing returns. When the simulation was parameterized to minimize the number of colonists (high θ and relative fecundity), 96 (48–216, 95% HPD) colonists were most likely. In a more realistic scenario with Allee effects (e.g., 50% reduction in fecundity) plaguing the colonists, the most likely number of lionfish increased to 272 (106–950, 95% HPD). These results, in combination with other published data, support the hypothesis that lionfish were introduced to the Atlantic via the aquarium trade, rather than shipping. When building the model employed here, we made assumptions that minimize the number of colonists, such as the lionfish being introduced in a single event. While we conservatively modelled the introduction pathway as a single release of lionfish in one location, it is more likely that a combination of smaller and larger releases from a variety of aquarium trade stakeholders occurred near Miami, Florida, which could have led to even larger numbers of colonists than simulated here. Efforts to prevent future invasions via the aquarium trade should focus on the education of stakeholders and the prohibition of release, with adequate rewards for compliance and penalties for violations.
https://peerj.com/articles/3996/
Do invasive alien plants benefit more from global environmental change than native plants?
Invasive alien plant species threaten native biodiversity, disrupt ecosystem functions and can cause large economic damage. Plant invasions have been predicted to further increase under ongoing global environmental change. Numerous case studies have compared the performance of invasive and native plant species in response to global environmental change components (i.e. changes in mean levels of precipitation, temperature, atmospheric CO2 concentration or nitrogen deposition). Individually, these studies usually involve low numbers of species and therefore the results cannot be generalized. Therefore, we performed a phylogenetically controlled meta-analysis to assess whether there is a general pattern of differences in invasive and native plant performance under each component of global environmental change. We compiled a database of studies that reported performance measures for 74 invasive alien plant species and 117 native plant species in response to one of the above-mentioned global environmental change components. We found that elevated temperature and CO2 enrichment increased the performance of invasive alien plants more strongly than was the case for native plants. Invasive alien plants tended to also have a slightly stronger positive response to increased N deposition and increased precipitation than native plants, but these differences were not significant (N deposition: P = 0.051; increased precipitation: P = 0.679). Invasive alien plants tended to have a slightly stronger negative response to decreased precipitation than native plants, although this difference was also not significant (P = 0.060). So while drought could potentially reduce plant invasion, increases in the four other components of global environmental change considered, particularly global warming and atmospheric CO2 enrichment, may further increase the spread of invasive plants in the future.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13579/full